Analysis of the most affected countries in South America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Ecuador

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,120$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,452.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(39,452.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,621$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(206 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,730.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 56.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,730.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,479$ on 2020-06-07

Brazil

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $691,758$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(8.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,532,732.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 85.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,532,732.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,455$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(970 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,368.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 66.8)}}\) (asimptote \(51,368.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $371,351$ on 2020-06-07

Peru

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $196,515$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{286,796.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 75.6)}}\) (asimptote \(286,796.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,465$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(174 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,038.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 64.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,038.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $104,831$ on 2020-06-07

Chile

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $134,150$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{394,812.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 98.9)}}\) (asimptote \(394,812.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,637$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(20.2 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,363$ on 2020-06-07

Bolivia

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,643$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(93.3 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,825.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 87.1)}}\) (asimptote \(34,825.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $465$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(13.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,344.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 80.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,344.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,092$ on 2020-06-07

Colombia

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,149$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(799 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,061.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 99.5)}}\) (asimptote \(125,061.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,265$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(66 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,802.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 79.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,802.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,470$ on 2020-06-07

Argentina

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,794$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(486 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $664$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(57.5 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{905.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 60.7)}}\) (asimptote \(905.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,221$ on 2020-06-07

Uruguay

Population $3,473,730$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $845$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(257 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{806.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 27.4)}}\) (asimptote \(806.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(6.68 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 25.2)}}\) (asimptote \(22.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92$ on 2020-06-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Uruguay recovered 71%